Sunday, January 23, 2011

Political Slang and Avoiding Censorship in China

Internet censorship is a major barrier to access to information in China. Facebook, Twitter, Youtube, and many other social networking sites are currently blocked. Users are also required to register under real names on Chinese news websites to avoid anonymous postings that criticize government policy. Any user who searches sensitive terms can have internet access blocked to their computer for hours.

Most young Chinese know how to get around the "Great Firewall of China". But when posting on blogs and discussion forums, they have to be extra careful not to use overtly political terms. If they do, they are in danger of being deleted by the Fifty Cent Party (五毛党 wǔ máo dǎng), a group of housewives and retired folk who are supposedly paid 50 RMB cents by the government for every politically sensitive post they delete from these forums. In fact, when Propaganda Minister gave a speech at prestigious Renmin University last year, an unnamed student ran past, throwing a stack of 50 RMB cent bills into the air, to great applause.

Netizens use shorthand instead to express dissatisfaction, writing "ZF" instead of 政府 zhèngfǔ, meaning government; or "JC" instead of 警察 jǐngchá, meaning police.

They might also use homonyms, characters that sound almost the same, to represent political terms. River crab (河蟹 héxiè) is often used instead of harmony (和谐 héxié), a common term used by the government to explain any controversial policy. Taking the term to heart, dissident artist Ai Weiwei 艾未未 promised to serve 10,000 river crabs to fellow dissidents as a protest against government censorship.

Chinasmack, a blog that translates Chinese internet gossip into English, has a wonderful glossary of slang (political, funny, and just plain offensive) popular in online forums.

WSJ's The Big Interview: Henry Kissinger on China



This week, the WSJ interviewed Henry Kissinger on China. He expressed his dismay about the reaction of the US media to the Chinese stealth plane (which he recalls is just a prototype). Towards the end of the interview, the former Secretary of State was asked what issues he would prioritize working on with China. He said that the big one is a contingency plan for dealing with North Korea if (and when) it collapses. It is interesting that he also brings this up. Some of the wikileaks articles also mentioned this as a priority.

Monday, January 17, 2011

J-20 Stealth Fighter and Gates’ Visit

US Defense Secretary Gates just left Beijing after a meeting with President Hu Jintao to strengthen military ties between the two countries. During his visit, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) surprisingly tested its new J-20 stealth fighter jet, designed to compete with America’s F-22 Raptor (but according to most analyses, it doesn’t come close). Hu insisted that it was nothing more than a coincidence that the test flight happened during Gates visit (even though it was originally scheduled for later this week).


Predictably, headlines on the English-language versions of Chinese propaganda organs shouted that the meeting represented a huge positive development in relations. However, I noticed that the Chinese-language websites of People’s Daily and Xinhua only had one tiny article buried at the bottom the site. Could this be because fenqing (愤青,young Chinese nationalists) would be upset to see negotiations with the US military? I couldn’t figure it out.

By far the most interesting development in this story is the strong suspicion American officials have that the civilian leadership in Beijing had no idea that the military was going to test the jet during Gates’ visit. If that’s true, this mean that Beijing is in fact far less stable than the American media would have us believe. This could have terrible consequences for US-China relations, since Washington must take the much more conservative military faction in Beijing into consideration.


It also raises some interesting questions about recent events: could recent skirmishes in the South and East China Seas have taken place without civilian approval? Could the overeager military crackdown in Xinjiang in 2009 have been on the PLA’s insistence? And most importantly—could Beijing’s new friendly ties with its neighbors, especially in Central and Southeast Asia, be at risk should the PLA gain more political ground?


I’m generally not one to be overly pessimistic about China’s growth, but this week’s events don’t bode well for US-Chinese relations.

Sunday, January 16, 2011

US-China Space Power

In July 1975, the American 'Apollo' spacecraft docked with the Soviet 'Soyuz' in orbit, heralding the symbolic end of the Cold War's Space Race and initiating two harmonious decades of sustained international cooperation in outer space.

On January 11 2007, the People's Republic of China (PRC) conducted its first successful anti-satellite weapons test, destroying an inactive Chinese weather satellite along with twenty-two years of relative diplomatic tranquility. The target's altitude (535 miles above the Earth's surface) happened to align with the standard operational altitudes of American and Japanese imagery intelligence satellites. This was the first successful anti-satellite (ASAT) test to take place since 1985, when the US used a military aircraft-launched missile to shoot down a malfunctioning observation satellite.

The impact of China's carefully-engineered collision generated immediate shockwaves throughout the developed world. In addition to scattering hazardous debris in orbit, the PRC's proven ASAT capabilities raised latent concerns about the international consequences of space weaponization. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Liu Jianchao claimed that the PRC had announced the test to the international community beforehand, and that the country “will not participate in any kind of arms race in outer space”. Meanwhile East Asia experts within the US called the incident “China’s most provocative military action since it test-fired missiles off the coast of Taiwan more than a decade ago” [NY Times, Jan 2007]. The action demonstrated a growing tension between China’s diplomatic rhetoric of an intended ‘peaceful rise’, and the simultaneous ‘hard power’ development of lethal, high-tech capabilities to rival those of the US.

On December 6, 2010 I discussed this issue with a visiting Chinese scholar named Xuegang Zhang who delivered a presentation on ‘Space Power’ in the context of US-China relations. Asked to explain China's motivation in conducting the controversial ASAT test, he told me that it was "simply an experiment, a test of Chinese technological capabilities", and had “nothing to do with the moral or political reasons” that the US and others ascribed to it. Pausing briefly to think, he added that “it is necessary in international relations to have an advanced and powerful military in every arena in order to carry strength at the negotiating table”. Does the current international system give China just cause to view military strength as a diplomatic necessity? Evaluating the American model of hegemonic power since World War I and its staggering military expenditures on campaigns abroad in recent history, it would be a bit hypocritical to argue that China is acting 'immorally' by using force (threatened or realized) as a tool for promoting national interests.

Mr. Zhang’s statement about the moral irrelevance of its ASAT test resonates with a prominent strand of rhetoric espoused by the PRC, one which challenges America's right to infuse questions of subjective morality and justice into international relations issues. Moral authority is ultimately the luxury of the strong, often used to justify their own interests and provide long-term social support for idiosyncratic agendas. As the PRC’s strength increases and relative power dynamics shift, its leaders will naturally seek to alter the international system in ways that favor their own interests. China is openly challenging dominant American norms concerning the universality of American and Western principles, proposing instead that every nation is entitled to a large degree of sovereign discretion in conducting their activities- whether that involves destroying their own property in orbit or setting internal standards for human rights issues on the ground. While the tacit acceptance of human rights violations abroad indicates a deeply flawed foreign policy, I do believe that the PRC is entitled to expand and test its military capabilities. As long as such tests remain benign, the international community doesn't really have any other option than to let them continue. The US had its turn to develop ASAT weaponry in the mid-1980s, and China had the right to do so when it became technologically possible in the late 2000s.

So why is the US concerned about China’s ability to target and destroy a single satellite? Because we live in a world of relative anarchy, plagued with uncertainty about the future actions of other states. We are also increasingly dependent on satellite systems for normal military and economic operations. Today the average consumer in the developed world enjoys the myriad services of satellites on a daily basis: near-instantaneous global telecommunication, GPS navigation, high-resolution mapping, weather forecasting, satellite TV, and a variety of other amenities directly and indirectly supported by the global satellite network. Similar services also provide the technological backbone for modern military operations. Despite this high degree of dependence on satellites, international legislation coordinating and protecting the system in a military sense is surprisingly sparse.

The Outer Space Treaty (OST) of 1967, which serves as the veritable magna carta of space law, contains one central rule: “space shall be preserved for peaceful purposes for all countries". However, existing arms control treaties do not explicitly ban weaponry from space. Instead, they prohibit the deployment or use of nuclear weapons in outer space, forbid the colonization of heavenly bodies for military purposes, and protect the rights of nations in using space-based resources to verify arms control accords and conduct peaceful activities. In 2001, former Secretary of State Donald Rumsfeld sounded an alarmist warning that due to the “commercial and military importance of space to U.S. interests ... unless the U.S. develops full-scale space control capabilities, it will face the risk of a ‘Space Pearl Harbor,’" meaning an attack on its entire range of peaceful space assets. This attitude provoked an aggressive US stance on space militarization which gained inertia under the Bush Administration and led to an unprecedented development of space-related weapons and defense systems, reminiscent of the aggressive 'Star Wars' programs of the Reagan era. While not technically violating an enforceable arms agreement, these actions contradicted the ideological assumptions of peaceful conduct established in the 1967 OST, and likely induced China to develop its own ASAT capabilities in response.

In 2001 China presented an incomplete draft treaty to the UN banning the weaponization of space, and the following year China and Russia jointly proposed another treaty banning the use of Earth-based weapons against objects in space. The US declined to sign either document. America also has repeatedly refused to ratify the treaty to Prevent an Arms Race in Outer Space (PAROS), first called for by the UN General Assembly at the 2001 Geneva Conference. The 2001 PAROS vote passed 156 to 0, with the US, Micronesia, Israel, and Georgia abstaining, and the PRC among those voting in favor. Something obviously affected China’s stance in the handful of intervening years to bring them to conduct a successful ASAT 'experiment' by 2007. America's aggressive military policies and ongoing refusal to enter a binding non-weaponization agreement are certainly part of the equation.

Whether or not the PRC and the US will ultimately drag each other into war depends on a myriad of factors to be played out on the ground, and remains an unlikely prospect for the immediate future. If armed conflict does prove to be in the cards, however, it is increasingly likely that the theater of 21st century warfare will extend beyond the traditional arenas of land, sea and air to encompass the increasingly vital resources of outer space.

Sunday, January 2, 2011

Taipei 101 New Year’s Fireworks:

Not that I am a true connoisseur, but I was physically present for the 2008, 2009, and 2010 fireworks displays. Based on the youtube video below, this year seems to be more technically sophisticated, longer in duration, and spectacular than any of the past three years.

Furthermore I will add that the theme/ message this year is an improvement over the unfortunate one from 2010 (either “Taiwan up” or “Up Taiwan” depending on one’s reading perspective). It is most appropriate to recognize the 100th Anniversary of the Republic of China. 2011 R (heart) C strikes me as being a most Taiwanese expression of jubilance.

Finally, each year at this time I spend at least a few hours watching the TV and newspaper coverage of celebrations around the world. A pattern that I have noted the past three years is the conspicuous absence of the Taipei 101 fireworks display from major media outlet coverage. It is a really interesting and certainly unique ringing in of the New Year. I’m not sure if it is because there is no local affiliate to cover the event. A conspiracy theorist might suggest that the possibility of there being a collective decision to avoid the political theme messages plastered across the top of the building. Your guess is as good as mine.

In the wake of the massive fireworks display after the 2008 Olympics, it is interesting that the Chinese celebration in Beijing is muted. Why is this? Unlike in Taipei, there is clearly a deliberate decision that January 1st (as compared to Chinese New Year which is usually about a month later) be muted or downplayed.

Check out the video below because it is really great.

Saturday, January 1, 2011

China Wikileaks: GDP numbers are false; alternative measures available

To a Sinophile or anyone who has spoken with a university economist in China, this is not news. In fact, this is less than news. To any brave traveller who has made it past the east coast cities and poked around the Chinese interior, this is also not particularly interesting.

What is interesting is to hear this from the man who will be China’s next Premier in 2012. (See the WSJ 12/6 article entitled, “Chinese Leader Called Data 'Man-Made'”).

Here are the facts from the cables as reported by Ambassador Clark Randt:

1. Li Keqing refers to China’s GDP numbers as being ‘manmade’, and “for reference only”
2. He further suggests looking at electricity consumption, rail freight volume, and lastly loan disbursement/ interest rates charged
3. The reason for selecting these is based upon supposed accuracy over-and-above other measures.

A number of large firms in the US that track Chinese data use similar measures to estimate actual economic growth in China. A recent working paper published by the School of Public Policy at George Mason University suggested focusing on satellite imagery and urban lights as a way to measure growth. The WSJ also wrote about this in their "Real Time China Report" (See "Bright Lights, Big Cities: A China GDP Alternative?")

The nagging question: how can one accurately measure GDP growth?

There is clearly a need for stand-in indicators. Ideally, these should take into account the present/ immediate past, the short-term future, and medium-term outlook. Electricity consumption might be a fairly robust present or immediate past indicator. Rail freight seems like it could be a good stand-in for the short-term future (it could represent commodities to be sold in the near-term like foodstuffs, agricultural products, or intermediate goods). Finally, the loan disbursement represents the medium-term (or longer term) investments that should compose GDP growth.

How about other potential measures? Water consumption? Water is the bottleneck of industrial production. It follows that the government and industry would want extremely accurate figures on water. Water consumption is a good way to measure certain types of industrial production.

A friend of mine recently suggested looking at loan defaults. This would provide a good barometer of economic trouble.

How about using satellites to count the number of large industrial ships that enter and leave China in a given period? This could then be compared to historical trends.

There are all sorts of interesting possibilities.