Unrest in Egypt: Will It Spread to China?

The Wall Street Journal points out that China "isn't immune to Nile fever". China's GDP per capita is one-third of Egypt's, and scores worse on income inequality. The main catalyst for the Cairo riots seems to be the high inflation that has consumed the country for years now. Should the Chinese inflation rate rise, it's entirely possible that we will see the same reactions there. Already, the real-estate bubble in major cities across China is one of the hot topics and biggest sources of friction.

As is usual with instability abroad, the Chinese government has responded to the event by censoring news about the riots. Weibo (China's more "harmonious" knock-off version of Twitter) and Sina.com have blocked any mention of the riots from their search results. (Baidu, another major Chinese search engine, does have some articles about the riots). Government-run media like Xinhua, People's Daily, and the English-language China Daily report only that the UN has called for "order" in Cairo.

Beijing is right to be worried. Nearly every dynasty in China's history has been undone at least in part by popular uprisings. A rebel army led by peasant soldier Li Zicheng took over Beijing in 1644, precipitating the fall of the Ming Dynasty. The Qing dynasty was weakened by both a pseudo-Christian Taiping rebellion and ethnic minority revolts, leading to its complete collapse in 1911. The list goes on. There is no reason to think that the current regime is immune to the patterns of history.

I don't think that the riots in Egypt will directly influence Chinese citizens. As a recent article in Time points out, the Chinese do not view citizens of faraway Egypt as brethren and are unlikely to pay particular attention to the riots going on there. While internet censorship in China is fairly easy to get around (and none of the English-language coverage is blocked), it is unlikely that the majority of Chinese will care enough to look. However, the catalysts that led to the Cairo riots--high unemployment and inflation--could occur in China very soon.

Japan's silent youth

New York Times article: In Japan, Young Face Generational Roadblocks.

Hollywood portrayals of a high-tech Tokyo and selective press coverage of Honda's latest humanoid robot might lead us to see Japan as some futuristic wonderland of innovation, no doubt propelled by driven young engineers and imaginative entrepreneurs. In reality, however, a deep and persistent malaise infects the country's younger generation, breeding an enervating apathy that bleeds into every social sphere and prevents the youth from breathing fresh air into this rigidly traditional and aging society. Some quotes from the above article:

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"I’d rather have the freedom to try different things, but in Japan, the costs of doing something different are just too high." -Nagisa Inoue, a senior at Tokyo’s Meiji University.

"Young people here do not react with anger or protest, instead blaming themselves and dropping out [of the conformist corporate system], or with an almost cheerful resignation, trying to find contentment with horizons that are far more limited than their parents'."

"An aging population is clogging the nation’s economy with the vested interests of older generations, young people and social experts warn, making an already hierarchical society even more rigid and conservative. The result is that Japan is holding back and marginalizing its youth at a time when it actually needs them to help create the new products, companies and industries that a mature economy requires to grow."
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It isn't that the older generation doesn't want the younger to succeed, they just don't want to see them succeed in a "non-Japanese" way. The 'Japanese way' itself is an infinitely malleable concept, having been adapted to accomodate foreign pressures on the socially homogenous island nation for thousands of years- including the adoption of written Chinese characters in the 4th century and Western-style industrialization in the 19th. Forced to rewrite the rules (from the National Constitution downward) which govern their multi-millenium-old society after suffering defeat in World War II, today's older generation represents the last vestige of a proud people devoted to anachronistic ideals of national self-sufficiency and racial/cultural superiority.

In a conformist society where "the nail that sticks out gets hammered down", my hope is that Japan's younger generation is not already too jaded to seek the wealth of experiences open to a rebellious and creative mind. It is ultimately only a matter of time until young and frustrated Japanese, increasingly aware of alternative opportunities abroad, throw off the yoke of dogmatic tradition and re-imagine the possibilities facing them and their children. Liberated from the firm grip of conservatism, we may see a new Japan emerge, critically engaged in the underpinnings of its own society and eager to explore a more dynamic relationship with the rest of the world.

Skirmish at the Cambodian-Thai border

The Washington Post reports at least one and at most four casualties in a skirmish that included exchange of gunfire on Saturday. Thousands have left the area and ancient relics were damaged. The Washington Post suggests that all-out war is unlikely.

Tensions have been building for months over the disputed area. Part of the problem is that the Cambodians burned all of their maps, and thus have a difficult time legitimizing their arguments. Furthermore, the border was initially based on the water table, which has since changed. Both sides have lobbied Internet companies like Google to demarcate online maps as a way to legitimize their claims.

This is a fascinating development in international affairs. Though I am certain it is not the first time this has occurred, it is particularly salient given that a majority of countries’ populations view state-capture by governments as a highly important issue (See Pew Research Global Attitudes Data). Governments rely on companies to legitimize and argue disputes. In many recent instances, companies are the vehicles for citizens to dispute their governments (the Iranian protests come to mind). All the while, smart authoritarian governments, like the Chinese, dedicate ever more resources to managing information and corporations that operate within their borders.

Jon Huntsman, future president?

US Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman has just announced that he will step down from his post, effective April 30. Of course, everyone is now speculating that he will run in the Republican presidential primaries in 2012.

Huntsman, by most accounts, has been a terrific ambassador to China. The former governor of Utah was appointed to the post by President Obama in part because of his familiarity with China, and in part as a (failed) attempt to eliminate political competition in 2012. He learned Mandarin as a Mormon missionary in Taiwan and is often said to be fluent (although I think that that's a bit of an overstatement). One of his seven children, Gracie Mei, was adopted from China. Most impressively, despite many major disagreements between the US and China during Huntsman's appointment (yuan revaluation, human rights issues, naval confrontations in the South China Sea), he is still liked by the Chinese population.

If he is indeed planning on running, Huntsman would lead the pack of mostly weak potential Republican candidates that have been named so far. Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, and Newt Gingrich are all too right-wing to appeal to the majority of the American population; governors Haley Barbour of Mississippi, Mitch Daniels of Indiana, and even Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota might be too little known outside of their home states. Huntsman's experience in the Obama administration, albeit as an ambassador, and his Mormon faith will count against him in the primaries. But his success as Utah governor, experience in China, and conservative values will make him a formidable candidate in 2012.

Huntsman wouldn't be the first US representative to China to make a bid for president. George H. W. Bush was President Ford's chief envoy to the PRC during the mid-1970s. While in Beijing, Bush called for warmer relations between the two countries and continuing dialogue. (This is all detailed in published diaries from his time in Beijing). Even when the Tiananmen crackdown occurred during his presidency, Bush ignored calls from both the left and the right to sever ties with Beijing. Instead, he personally called Deng Xiaoping to discuss the incident, and was criticized for being too close to the leaders of the 1989 crackdown.

While it is certainly too early to tell, the question must be asked: what could a Huntsman presidency mean for Sino-American relations? Sinocism thinks that Obama should fire Huntsman immediately in order to save US-China relations; Obama will lose face if one of his appointees unseats him. I think this argument is pretty weak. America should never compromise its democratic values (i.e., firing an ambassador because he chooses to participate in free elections) in order to appear 'strong' to an authoritarian government. Moreover, firing Huntsman only weeks before he will resign makes Obama look irrational and overly partisan at a time when that is the last thing he wants to do. It might even help Huntsman's campaign--after all, anything Obama doesn't like is good for a Republican candidate. Overall, Huntsman knows enough about Chinese culture and politics to be able to successfully negotiate the ever-changing Sino-American relationship.

But for now, he has yet to announce his candidacy.