Upcoming Event: Democratization in Taiwan at Georgetown University (April 1)

Invitation Follows:

Join the Taiwanese American Student Association as we explore the process of, and future prospects for, Taiwan's democratization.

The democratic achievements of Taiwan have been widely recognized by the international community. Taiwan’s democratization is not only an important milestone in the global democratic movement; it has also opened a vital avenue of dialogue between Taiwan and the world

We invite you to join us as we we host a panel of speakers from different walks of life as they give us their take on democracy in Taiwan. We have invited

Deputy Leo Lee (Deputy Ambassador from the Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office)
John Tkacik (Former State Department)
Amy Hsieh (Taiwan Foundation for Democracy)

Moderated by Professor Nancy Tucker.

The panel will feature talks from each of these speakers, and will be followed by a Q&A session.

RSVP on Facebook.

Public Perceptions of China in the US: Friends, Frenemies, or Foes?

From a short paper that I did for a statistics course:

Spring 2009 Pew Research data bivariate comparison and analysis of US individual economic satisfaction and perceptions of China.

I suggest that in a comparison of US citizens, those citing a lower level of individual economic satisfaction will be more likely to have a less favorable view (as a measure of public perception) of the People’s Republic of China than will those individuals indicating a higher level of individual economic satisfaction.

There is a strong domestic determinate of personal economic satisfaction that is closely related to public perceptions of the People’s Republic of China. The reasoning behind such a hypothesis is rooted in the common perception that blue collar (particularly) but also some white-collar jobs have been lost to the Chinese. For this reason, individuals experiencing various forms of economic hardship (unemployment, having family/ friends who are unemployed, perceptions of reduced buying power, investments and savings, stock performance, etc.) are likely to seek some sort of explanatory factor. At present, and largely attributable to the 2008 Olympic games, China’s role in the world has been highlighted. It is because of this confluence, that I propose that the greater the self-reported level of economic dissatisfaction, the less favorable will be the public perception of the Chinese.


In this analysis, the two variables considered are personal economic satisfaction and the public perception of China. Personal economic satisfaction is the independent, nominal variable, while the public perceptions stands as the dependent, nominal variable. Nearly 60% of those citing very good personal economic situations have a “somewhat favorable” or better view of China, whereas only 47.83% of those citing a very bad personal economic satisfaction cite having a “somewhat favorable” or better view of China. The converse is also interesting. Amongst those people indicating a “very good” personal economic situation, only 39.95% have a “somewhat negative” or worse view of China. Of those that indicated a “very bad” personal economic situation, 52.18 also reported a “somewhat unfavorable” or worse opinion of China.

Closer examination of the data reveals what appears to be a positive, linear trend suggesting that indeed the lower the personal economic satisfaction, the more negative the perceptions of China. In reaching this conclusion it is important to consider the favorable/somewhat favorable and very unfavorable/somewhat unfavorable categories of public perceptions as two (rather than four) categories. It is important to note also the two far right columns of the graph. These categories are people who either did not know how to characterize their economic situation, or refused to do so. Let us first consider those who do not know how to categorize their individual economic situation. There are a number of possible explanations for this including inattentive individuals, real concerns about the economic outlook, or a flaw in the survey methodology. In this category it is interesting to note that the “somewhat unfavorable” and “very favorable) categories completely disappear. Thus it would seem that if Americans have uncertainty about their personal economic situations, more than half of those individuals also seem to hold extremely negative views of China and none exhibit “very favorable” views. For these reasons, I would argue that this category does in fact lend to proving the hypothesis. On the other hand, the final category (“Refused”) on the graph does not support nor disprove the hypothesis. There are a variety of reasons that individuals might choose not to answer this question—including people who believe in personal privacy.

Taiwan Rapper Video for Japanese Earthquake Victims

New Rap Video about Inflation in China

EVENT: The Department of Homeland Security- Year Eight

A few very interesting points from this morning's event on Georgetown's campus.

The event was moderated by NBC's Andrea Mitchell. C-SPAN provided coverage, and a portion is slated to air on MSNBC.

The participants consisted of all three Secretaries of Homeland Security.
Janet Napaolitano
Tom Ridge
Michael Chertoff

Prominent attendees:
Sen. Landrieu
Congressmen King and Price
Congresswoman Harmon
The German Ambassador

Some salient points that were made. Please note that they are paraphrased.

Napolitano:
- Intelligence is not linear, but rather is a cloud of information.
- Currently, intelligence about aviation places it as the most significant ongoing threat. US adversaries prefer passenger jets over cargo jets. Bridges, and trains are secondary.
- Moving forward on the Lisbon Treaty that would permit and establish guidelines for airline passenger information sharing between EU countries and the US is entering its third round of negotiations.
- The biggest concern of DHS is homegrown terrorists.
- DHS has an active presence at US hacker conventions and actively tries to recruit the best.

Chertoff:
- Risk management is not about risk elimination.
- The government evaluates the potential impact before funding and project decisions are made
- Layered defense, with built-in redundancies should help mitigate intel failures.

Ridge:
- Airline security is not yet at the risk managed stage.
- Should we treat everyone as a potential terrorist forever?
- It was easier to go to the moon than to come up with some of the strategies and technologies required for airline security.
- Currently enjoys flying and has been pulled aside for secondary screening on a number of occasions. Finds TSA staff to be delightful.